Celina is not out of water and it is not blocking development. What it is doing is quietly moving the cost and schedule risk on new projects, and the numbers behind that move just became public.
City staff will present a water conservation update to Council on August 11. The presentation, posted in the meeting's agenda packet, sets out three years of Celina water supply operating data. Read as a land document rather than a utility report, it tells you four things worth pricing into a deal.
The short version on the Celina water supply. Entitlements are not gated. Landscape standards are being redrafted. Peak demand runs above what the city is contractually guaranteed. And the relief date is a rainfall question, not a calendar date.
The Celina Water Supply Number to Underwrite Against Is 10.5
Celina's subscription with the Upper Trinity Regional Water District is 10.5 million gallons per day, up from the 10 million figure most coverage still carries.
"Since the 2025 request referenced in your question, the City has received an increase in its subscribed capacity from the Upper Trinity Regional Water District (UTRWD) to 10.5 million gallons per day," Assistant City Manager Kimberly Brawner said in the city's written response.
Peak usage in 2026 hit 12.1 million.
That looks like a Celina water supply past its limit. It is not, and the distinction matters for anyone modeling a project.
Mayor Ryan Tubbs explained the arrangement in response to a question.
"Upper Trinity Regional Water District has been able to service the higher demand," Tubbs said. "Upper Trinity will not contractually agree to that amount."
UTRWD can send additional supply to recharge the city's storage tanks, he said. But if that oversupply is abused, or if the district gets close to not being able to treat and pump Celina's demand, the city moves immediately to Stage 3, "which would mean essential use only and no outdoor irrigation."
So 10.5 is not what the Celina water supply delivers. It is what the city is guaranteed. The difference between the two exists at a wholesaler's discretion and is not written down anywhere.
If your pro forma assumes the water that has actually been showing up, you are underwriting someone else's goodwill. Model the Celina water supply against 10.5.
The Celina Water Supply Growth Data Is Better Than the Headlines
Here the city's own numbers cut against the alarm.
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of meters | 16,865 | 18,212 | 20,412 |
| Maximum usage | 11.8 MGD | 11.7 MGD | 12.1 MGD |
| Average daily demand | 6.5 MGD | 6.2 MGD | 6.9 MGD |
| Days above subscription | 40 | 7 | 7 |
| Water warnings issued | 4,020 | 3,963 | 2,769 |
| Citations issued | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The meter count grew 21%. Average daily demand grew 6%. Per meter, daily use fell from roughly 385 gallons to 338, down about 12%. Celina absorbed more than 3,500 new connections while the average draw per rooftop went down.
That is the number that matters if you are betting on this corridor absorbing more density. A city whose per connection demand falls as it grows has more runway than its peak day figure suggests.
Days above subscription went from 40 in 2024 to seven in each of the last two years. Warnings are down 30%. Citations across three years: zero, against an ordinance authorizing fines of $500 to $2,000 per day and service disconnection.
The Celina water supply enforcement posture is cooperative, not punitive. For a developer weighing Celina against a jurisdiction that writes tickets, that is a real difference.
The Celina Water Supply Cost Question Reaches Council This Fall
This is the part with a date on it.
Council directed staff to draft xeriscape requirements for commercial and multifamily development, city projects, roadway medians and HOA landscape buffers. The work covers the Zoning Ordinance, Subdivision Ordinance, Building Codes and Engineering Design Standards, according to Director of Development Services Dusty McAfee.
"The overall effort is expected to take approximately six months to complete, with the Zoning Ordinance amendments (the highest priority component) anticipated to be presented to the City Council for consideration this fall," McAfee said in the city's written response.
Nothing changes until Council votes. That vote has not happened.
Council documents have already conceded xeriscape is more expensive than turf.
Single family front yards are not in the announced scope. Council took up single family turf limits in January and split, with members raising concerns that restricting front yard grass would hurt home values. The commercial and multifamily side moved. The residential side did not.
Practical read: on a commercial or multifamily site, the standard your project will be built to is being drafted now, and the direction Council gave staff points toward higher landscape cost. On single family dirt the standard is unchanged, and the January split suggests it will be politically difficult to change.
That is worth watching. It affects residual land value differently by product type.
Stage 3 Is a Schedule Risk You Can Model
Stage 2 of the Celina water supply plan restricts watering to one day a week. Stage 3 prohibits outdoor irrigation entirely and stops new pool permits.
Celina's landscaping code requires automatic underground irrigation on all front yards, bubbler irrigation on all trees, and landscaped areas covered with living plant material.
The code anticipates the conflict. If the city finds during drought that planting is impractical, a temporary certificate of occupancy may issue, with required landscaping installed within 120 days of the later of that certificate or the lifting of restrictions.
For a builder that is a quantifiable exposure. A Stage 3 declaration during your delivery window means temporary COs, a deferred landscape install, and a punch list that reopens up to four months later. No pool permits either, which matters where the pool is part of the sale.
The Celina water supply presentation shows how close that gets. Between July 1 and August 3, the city ran above its Stage 3 threshold on 23 of 34 days while remaining in Stage 2, because UTRWD kept delivering.
Build the 120 day deferral into your schedule contingency. It costs nothing if it never triggers.
What the Celina Water Supply Is Not Doing
City Manager Robert Ranc addressed it directly in the city's written response.
"The City is not currently limiting, capping, or pausing new utility connections, building permits, or plat approvals due to water supply or delivery capacity, and those actions are not under consideration at this time," Ranc said.
That is the single most important fact for land values in the corridor, and the one most often gotten wrong. The Celina water supply is a cost and timing question, not an entitlement question. Anyone pricing a tract as though approvals are frozen is pricing on a rumor.
Celina Water Supply Relief Is a Rainfall Question
Additional Celina water supply capacity arrives with Lake Ralph Hall, the UTRWD reservoir in Fannin County that began filling in early July. "UTRWD has also committed to providing Celina with additional subscribed capacity upon the completion of Lake Ralph Hall, which is currently anticipated in 2027," Brawner said. "The amount and timing of that additional capacity will depend on the rate at which the reservoir fills following completion."
For anyone with a longer horizon, land bought during the constrained window delivers into the relieved one, assuming the rain cooperates. Land underwritten on a fixed 2027 date is underwritten on something nobody has been promised.
Stage 2 has a nearer term marker. The city's presentation lists a targeted end of restrictions of September 15, 2026.
Celina Water Supply Due Diligence
- Confirm in writing whether the tract carries a documented water capacity commitment, and get the guaranteed number, not the delivered number
- Check the drought stage in effect at closing and again at certificate of occupancy
- For commercial or multifamily, budget landscape against the pending xeriscape standards rather than the current code
- Build a 120 day landscape deferral into delivery schedules
- For unincorporated tracts, identify the groundwater district, since land outside city service runs under the North Texas Groundwater Conservation District with its own permitting and drilling costs
- Test any schedule tied to Lake Ralph Hall against fill rate, not against 2027
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Celina blocking new development because of water?
No. The city confirmed it is not limiting, capping or pausing utility connections, building permits or plat approvals, and that such measures are not under consideration.
How much water is Celina guaranteed?
The subscription with UTRWD is 10.5 million gallons per day. Peak usage in 2026 reached 12.1 million gallons per day, supplied at UTRWD's discretion above the contracted amount.
How does this affect a construction schedule?
Under Stage 3, outdoor irrigation stops. The city's landscaping code allows a temporary certificate of occupancy with required landscaping installed within 120 days of the later of that certificate or the lifting of restrictions.
Will landscape requirements change?
Not yet, and not automatically. Council directed staff to draft xeriscape requirements for commercial and multifamily development, city projects, roadway medians and HOA landscape buffers. Any change requires a Council vote that has not taken place. Zoning amendments are expected to go to Council this fall.
When do Stage 2 restrictions end?
The city's presentation lists a targeted end of September 15, 2026.
The Bottom Line
The Celina water supply is a cost and schedule input, not a shortage and not a development freeze. The city's own data shows demand per connection falling as the meter count climbs, and an enforcement record of zero citations in three years.
What the Celina water supply changes for land is narrower and more useful. Underwrite against the guaranteed 10.5 million gallons per day rather than what has been delivered. Price the fall xeriscape standards into commercial and multifamily landscape budgets now. Carry a 120 day landscape contingency on delivery schedules. And treat the Lake Ralph Hall relief date as a rainfall variable rather than a milestone. Those four items are what the Celina water supply actually costs a deal.
Working land in Celina, Prosper, or the northern Collin and Denton corridor? Request a Water and Utility Capacity Brief from North 40 Land Group. We confirm the service provider, the guaranteed capacity committed to the tract, the drought stage in effect, and the landscape standards that will apply when you deliver.
The water conservation presentation described here is scheduled for the August 11, 2026 City Council meeting and had not been presented at the time of publication. Figures are as they appear in the posted agenda packet. The City of Celina responded in writing to questions submitted for this analysis, with answers provided by City Manager Robert Ranc, Assistant City Manager Kimberly Brawner and Director of Development Services Dusty McAfee, and transmitted by Director of Marketing and Communications Joe Monaco. Mayor Ryan Tubbs responded separately by message. The Upper Trinity Regional Water District was not contacted, and the characterization of its contractual position is the city's.
References
- City of Celina. Written response to questions submitted by The Texas Land Agent, July 2026. Answers provided by City Manager Robert Ranc, Assistant City Manager Kimberly Brawner and Director of Development Services Dusty McAfee. Transmitted by Joe Monaco, Director of Marketing and Communications. On file. Cited for: the subscribed capacity increase to 10.5 million gallons per day; UTRWD's commitment of additional capacity upon completion of Lake Ralph Hall and its dependence on fill rate; the absence of any limit on utility connections, building permits or plat approvals; and the scope and six-month timeline of the landscape and irrigation regulatory update, including the fall Council date for Zoning Ordinance amendments.
- Tubbs, Ryan. Mayor, City of Celina. Written statement to The Texas Land Agent, August 2026. On file. Cited for: UTRWD's ability to service demand above the subscribed amount; the absence of a contractual commitment to that higher amount; supply used to recharge city storage tanks; and the conditions under which Celina would move immediately to Stage 3.
- City of Celina. "Water Conservation 2026." Staff presentation to City Council, prepared by Kimberly Brawner, PE, PTOE, Assistant City Manager, and Andrew Figueroa, Director of Public Works. Scheduled for the August 11, 2026 City Council meeting, posted in the meeting agenda packet. View agenda packet Cited for: the 2024 to 2026 comparative statistics, including meter counts of 16,865, 18,212 and 20,412; maximum usage of 11.8, 11.7 and 12.1 MGD; average daily demand of 6.5, 6.2 and 6.9 MGD; days above subscription of 40, 7 and 7; water warnings of 4,020, 3,963 and 2,769; and zero citations issued in each year. Also cited for the July 1 to August 3, 2026 discharge analysis showing 23 days above the Stage 3 threshold, and for the targeted end of restrictions of September 15, 2026.
- Code of Ordinances, City of Celina, Texas. Article 13.04, Division 3, Drought Contingency Plan, Section 13.04.078. Ordinance 2024-24, adopted May 14, 2024. ecode360.com/45335525 Cited for: the Stage 2 restriction of landscape watering to one day per week; the Stage 3 prohibition on outdoor irrigation and new pool permits; stage thresholds set at 80, 85 and 90 percent of available delivery capacity; and penalties of not less than $500 and not more than $2,000 per violation with discontinuation of service after three violations.
- Code of Ordinances, City of Celina, Texas. Landscaping and Tree Preservation. Ordinance 2019-42, adopted October 8, 2019, amended by Ordinance 2024-21, adopted April 9, 2024. ecode360.com/39810084 Cited for: the requirement that all front yards be irrigated with an automatic underground system with rain and freeze sensors; that all trees be equipped with bubbler irrigation; that landscaped areas be covered with living plant material; and the drought provision permitting a temporary certificate of occupancy with required landscaping installed within 120 days of the later of that certificate or the lifting of restrictions.
- Community Impact. "Celina considers new water conservation regulations for 2026." January 16, 2026. View article Cited for: the January 2026 Council discussion of limits on turf and irrigation; the division among members over single family front and back yards; and concerns raised that restricting front yard grass would affect home values.
- Hintze, Jack. "Celina weighs stricter water rules amid rapid growth." Celina Record, Star Local Media, January 23, 2026. View article Cited for: council documents stating that xeriscape design is costly relative to conventional landscaping.
- City of Celina. "Water Conservation." celina-tx.gov/1304/Water-Conservation Cited for: the Stage 2 restrictions currently in effect as published by the city.
- Upper Trinity Regional Water District. utrwd.com Cited for: UTRWD's role as wholesale water provider to Celina and other member and customer communities.
- Lake Ralph Hall. Upper Trinity Regional Water District. lakeralphhall.com Cited for: the reservoir's location on the North Sulphur River in Fannin County and the start of filling in early July 2026.
Related: Lake Ralph Hall Starts Filling: Fannin County Land Impact
Related: Downtown Celina Development Hits a Milestone: $15M Trackside Junction Wins First-Ever TIRZ Backing
